I was reading an article the other day by John Dvorak about how mobile devices will not or should not replace our desktops. He naturally points to devices like the iPhone. He mentions that these devices could be left on a desk, stolen, dropped into the toilet, etc.

These are all very valid points, but maybe the article is ahead of its time? Perhaps in the near future mobile devices will allow us to back up our data, encrypt it and be secure? Maybe data would not be stored on the phone itself, but on a server which you need to connect to, in order to view it. Personally I never think a mobile device will replace a desktop, but what about the laptop?

Wires are not in style. With wireless devices becoming so popular and wifi spots opening up all over the country, the popularity of mobile devices like the iPhone as well as laptops seem to be at an all time high. No matter where you are, you can send an IM, check your e-mail or even book a table for two at your favorite restaurant.

What is the possibility that in the next 10 years carrying a clunky 3 pound MacBook Air becomes ‘lame’? Would people not rather carry around a device the size of their palm which could essentially perform the same functions?

In the last 10 years cell phone usage in the United States jumped from 30 million to 200 million. Worldwide there are over 2 billion cell phones, and these numbers are growing every year. The reason why cell phones haven’t replaced the notebook market are because of power and UI. Most of these phones are slow, clunky and hard to use. However with the increase in popularity of smartphones (iPhone, Windows Mobile and Blackberry) usability of these devices has steadily increased. What is to say that in another ten years your average phone will not have the basic functionality found in today’s laptops, and the worldwide number of users jumps to 4 billion?

You even have Google entering the market with their own OS. Android. They obviously see the potential to establish themselves in this market. Last year over 77 million Symbian smartphones were shipped making it one of the most popular operating systems on a mobile device. Last year over 1.1 billion cell phones were sold, followed by 160 million desktops and 110 million laptops sold.

Let me take it a step further and say that perhaps people will be able to dock their phones to a monitor and keyboard. What kind of impact would that have on the way we use computers? There already are phones with built in projectors, so I don’t think being able to hook your phone up to a monitor would be too difficult.

The future is exciting indeed. It’s no wonder Apple decided to get their hands dirty in an otherwise underachieving cell phone market. What does everybody think? Do you see phones ever taking over the function of laptops in the next 10, 20 years?

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Paul is Altgn's token Canadian. When he's not oogling over electronics and Apple he's probably out drinking beer, eating beaver tails, riding moose, watching the leaf game or all the above.
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